Pre-open comment Friday 17th February
Following the Ineffective Selling on Wednesday, Buyers Responded immediately after Thursday’s Open (green-at-bottom) and quickly auctioned ES back above the minor poc at 1346. Later in the session Aggressive Buying was also marked. Buyers are still in control of the dayframe. Unless the minor poc migrates higher, that perspective will only change if “Effective” Selling is marked below 1346.
First Level Support = 1346 (min poc)
Major Support = 1307 (maj poc) SPY = 131.28
Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls down to 42.7% (from 51.6%). In percentage terms that’s the biggest weekly fall in Bulls since late November. Bears came in at 26.6%, up from 20.2%. The net is therefore 16.1 and that’s well down from last week’s 31.4. This week is a multi-month high and I note that top weeks are very rarely put in on a week when this poll shows a decrease in Bullishness. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio came in lower at 3.95, but remember Wednesday’s ratio at 4.86 was the highest ratio I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: chart found Support yesterday at the 3mnth poc at 1.30.
+ Dollar Index: chart found Resistance yesterday at the important 80.15 level.
+ TLT: Chart found Resistance at the 10month poc at 117.88.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities for now but because of the close proximity of important levels this could change quickly.
