posted 08.25 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 17th May
Thursday generated an “inside” Value Area. Buyers still in control of the dayframe and no Significant Selling marked for eleven days. First sign of ST weakness would be time printed below the minor (5day) poc at 1646.50 which provided Support late in the session yesterdsay. Just over one hour pre-open ES is rallying back towards yesterday’s poc at 1655.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 77% Nasdaq 68% R2000 72%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
First Level Support = ES 1626 (22dy poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 4.42 (from 4.27). Rydex traders remain sceptical and from a contrarian viewpoint that’s usually supportive. Ratio reached a low of 3.22 on 4th Jan and a high of 5.22 on 13th Feb.
Supporting Charts + or – or ? indicates bias for equities
? Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Closed on Thursday above the major poc Support at 117.15. Time printed below that level would be weak price location. Momentum is down and negative.
– Oil USO: from the April low rallied back to the Resistance around 34.20. Only Closed once above it so far but time printed above this level would put the chart back into a strong price location. Momentum, although positive has turned down.
– Gold GLD: Fell steeply last month to its lowest level for two years. Momentum has turned negative.
– Silver SLV: On Thursday printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum has turned negative.
– Dollar Index: Has this week printed its highest level since July last year. Momentum is positive and up.
– EURUSD: Printing back below 1.3070, the 24mn poc. There is Support at 1.2777, the major poc. Momentum is negative and down.
TLT is a Key Chart. Can it hold the major Support at 117.15?
