posted 9.29 a.m.
Pre-open Friday 17th September
Significant Buyers were marked again on Thursday, aggressively auctioning ES higher in the p.m.
Dayframe: First Level Support is ES 1117 which is the minor 4day poc. Short Trades are now eliminated for me.
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported 50.9% Bulls, the highest since August 2009 and 24.3% Bears, the lowest since January 2010. Believe it or not that gives us the highest nett figure for a single week since May 2008 and all of the last four single week nett figures that were as high as this weeks were at or very close to important tops. Other sentiment numbers are steadily rising and could hit extremes if the market pushes higher. As yet the Rydex ratios do not confirm this (see below). I have already identified early October as a time pivot (in webcast) and this will look more interesting if rally continues.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio has been moving slowly higher for four days now. On Thursday it was was up from 1.35 to 1.46. It would be highly unusual for an important high in the market to come in with this ratio this low.
Supporting Charts
? USDJPY: Holding up after the strong up day on Wednesday – multi-year low earlier in the week.
+ EURUSD: Price Osc up for twelve consecutive days as this chart rallies off the 1.26 support (1/2R off June low).
+ UDX: Momentum is down (PriceOsc lower for twelve consecutive days).
+ TLT: printing below the major 1/2R level at 105.22 and PriceOsc lower for eleven consecutive days.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
