posted 9.25 a.m. est
Pre-open Friday 18th December
The halfway point of the range since the Dec 4th high is 1097 (March contract). If ES finds it difficult to print above this level early in the session then we could see weakness to end this week and that could potentially leave a reversal-type bar on the weekly chart which would be interesting.
So far no major support has been broken and I still wait to mark Effective Selling but the consensus polls suggest further weakness is likely:
The AAII public survey on Thursday showed only 28.4% Bears. Six weeks ago (just before the market rallied to a new high) the survey showed the highest percentage Bears for six months and now we have the lowest percentage Bears since May 2008. This is a contrarian indicator so this data is not bullish.
The Investors Intelligence Poll (newsletters) shows the most Bulls (52.2%) since January 2008 and the highest net (Bulls-Bears) since October 2007. Again this is a contrarian indicator.
Also the Rydex timers have not yet been panicked significantly into Bear funds.
