posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 18th February
I had been expecting Responsive Sellers to step in before ES reached 1340 but that hasn’t happened. I thought we would see some red-at-top this week but in fact Significant Buyers are so far still very active; Responding yesterday at the first opportunity as ES tested below the previous day’s VAL. The 8dayVAH moved up to 1339.50.
SP500 index Weekly RSI(13) is now at 77, the highest for years so very overbought technically but no sign of weakness yet in this dayframe analysis. First Level Support has been holding well and currently at 1326.50. ES printing time below that level would be a first sign of weakness.
First Level Support = 1326.50 (minor 9day poc)
Second Level Support = 1318 (20day poc)
LT Sentiment: lipperfundsflow.com reported net Equity Fund inflows of $9.5 billion. That’s a high number. I only see two weekly numbers higher than that since July 2008. AAII (public) poll showed little change.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down again to 3.22. This ratio is historically very high. 3.94 (on 01/19) was the highest reading I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Still looking for a clear higher low or lower high with respect to the 1/2R support at 1.3580 last week but currently prints above this level.
+ UDX: Similarly, still looking for a clear higher low or lower high with respect to the 1/2R at 78.53 but currently prints below
+ TLT: Reference level is now 91.80 (6month poc). Chart currently weak below that level.
imo these charts have a ST positive bias for equities.
