S&P 500 emini pre-open Friday 18th July
posted 09.14 a.m. est
Dayframe: During Thursday’s session there was a panicky sell-off which found exact low at our First Level LT Support at 1949.00. Aggressive Selling was marked and these red-at-bottom lows are tested within a day (or two) 80% of the time. That stat suggests a test below the 3mn poc Support and Bulls would want to see such a test rejected and the Support recovered if that occurs (see yesterday’s comments).
Longframe: In the longer timeframe the dayframe Aggressive Selling can be thought of as Reactive in as much as Sellers auctioned ES quickly back to the local poc as it nearly always does in a panic and we have seen many times in this analysis. New long trades are eliminated for me, at least until Significant Buying is marked again, but as long as ES holds above 1949.00 it remains in a strong price location in the LT. Concerns remain for equities re strength in Bonds and Dollar (see below), Sentiment extremes (see below), Breadth (see below) and negative Momentum divergences.
ES First Level S/R = 1967.50 (min poc)
ES First Level LT Support = 1949.00 (3mn poc)
Stock Index ETFs: Key chart IWM also found Support at the given level of the 2yr poc Support at 112.30. Price printing time below here would be an indication of further weakness.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 48% (from 61%), Nasdaq 39% (from 50%), R2000 36% (from 49%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 9.32. The highest ratio in my database was on 06/26 at 10.07.
Supporting Charts:
Financial Sector XLF: printing above 22.04, its Major 1/2R level in a strong LT price location. In the ST it prints below 22.77, its 1/2R off July high.
EURJPY: chart is printing below 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high in a weak price location and has today printed its lowest level since February.
Bonds TLT: in a strong ST price location above 112.27, the 10mn poc and is today printing close to its May high.
Dollar Index: sold off in June but found Support at the 79.76 maj poc. Up from there and LT Dollar bulls would want to see this level hold.
Gold GLD: sharply higher on Thursday to test 127.00, the 30mn poc. But pre-open today is printing below that level.
Oil USO: is higher this week and looking to test 37.96, the maj poc. Pre-open today prints just below that level.
EURUSD: printing below 1.3602, the 12mn poc in a weak price location and is today printing close to the June low.
