Pre-open Friday 18th June
ES made a good recovery after early weakness. Note that SPY is struggling to overcome its 1/2Bear Mkt level.
ES 13dy poc at 1106.5 is First Level support.
ES Major poc at 1094 is Second Level support.
First Level Resistance is 1122 on the September contract. This is the 1/2Range from the April high.
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) Bulls came in at 42.5% (up from 34.5%) and Bears at 30.7% (down from 43.1). That’s quite a change. AND.. amgdata reported Equity fund inflows at $11.4 bil; which is a huge number and the largest single week inflow since Sept 2008. These numbers indicate rapidly increasing public bullish sentiment which is quite a change and not bullish (contrarian).
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly from 1.9 to 1.8. VIX closed at a 30day low, down at 25.05 from a closing high of 45.79 on 20th May.
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
? USDJPY: prints above the 90.21 poc.
+ EURUSD: now printing back above the 1.2133 major halfway level and the Price Osc is increasing.
+ UDX: prints below 87.84 and the Price Osc is falling. Support at 85.14.
– as long as TLT holds above the 95.22 poc it is in a strong position.
these charts are mixed and imo their influence is uncertain for equities in the short term.
