Pre-open comment Friday 18th March
Wednesday’s red-at-bottom low was untested in Thursday’s session. That’s a 1-in-5 event and it would be very rare for an untested red-at-bottom low to mark a low of any significance so until Significant Buying is marked again I remain wary of the rally that currently sees ES printing back above the 1281.50 poc. However, if ES can build some value above that level it would indicate ST strength.
First Level S/R = 1281.50
Resistance = 1289.50 1/2R from Feb high (129.98 SPY)
Both Nyse and Nasdaq %Stocks>50dayma numbers are well below the 50 level which is an indication of weakness.
ST sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio fell to 2.15, its lowest level since early December.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Strong today. Potentially could test November’s high at 1.4282.
+ UDX: Weak again today. Potentially could test November’s low at 75.63.
– TLT: Down a little from Wednesday’s three month high but holding above the 91.82 poc which is a stronger price location if it holds.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to infer a bias for equities.
