posted 9.25 a.m. et
Pre-open comment Friday 18th November
Aggressive Selling was marked for the second time this week generating a lower,wider Value Area on increased Volume. ES tested the Major Support at 1214.50. Time printed below that level would greatly increase the odds of further weakness in the Longer Timeframe. If ES closes today’s session below 1230.50 (Wednesday’s low) then Weekly Price Structure will look weak.
Support (major) = 1214.50 1/2R off May high (SPY 122.30)
First Level Resistance ES 1244 (40dy poc), SPY 125.40 (40dy poc )
Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls at 41.9% (down from 44.7) and Bears at 31% (up from 24.6). The nett at 10.9 is down from last week’s nett at 20.1 but remember that was an eight month high. lipperusfundsflow reported Equity Fund (inc ETFs) inflows at $2.8 billion which lifts the 4wk flow number to $17.10 billion which is the highest since w/e 28th Jan.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 2.38 (from 2.75). Last week’s highest ratio at 2.96 was a 65dy high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Printed a 28day low on Thursday. Recently broke below the 1.3635 poc putting it back in a weak price location. Momentum down for fourteen days.
– Dollar Index: Printed a 28day high on Thursday. prints above the major level at 76.27 (1/2R off the May low) and above the 77.05 min poc. Momentum up for fourteen days.
– TLT: Prints above the 5mnth poc at 116.34 and above the minor 1/2R off Oct high at 117.42. Momentum up for fourteen days.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
