posted 09.10 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 19th April
Thursday generated a lower/overlapping Value Area on less Volume. The high of the session was a test of the 5mn poc at 1548.50 which was immediately rejected. That usually has negative implications so Bulls would definitely want to see time printed above that level as quickly as possible. The low tested the VAL at 1538 again but there was no rejection (rally) during the session itself. However, overnight ES has rallied to 1545.75
The POC levels we were watching yesterday turned out to be Resistance i.e. IWM 90.44 and SPY 155.80. Bulls need to see that change.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 37% Nasdaq 34%. Not supportive.
Resistance (minor) = ES 1582.50 (10dy poc)
Potential Support or Resistance intraday = ES 1548.50 (5mn poc)
Support = ES 1517.50 (prev poc)
VAL of the higher range of prices since early March is at ES 1538 (dashed).
My Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower on Tuesday at 4.03 (from 4.44). The Recent high for the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22. 60day low was 3.49.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Earlier this month TLT printed a new high for the year but failed at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Chart has reached that level again but has not exceeded it.
– Oil USO: On Wednesday printed its lowest level since June last year.
– Gold GLD: I’ve been saying this is a weak chart since early February when it fell below its major poc. Fell steeply on Friday and again this week to its lowest level for two years.
– Silver SLV: Likewise this chart. Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January. On Monday chart printed its lowest level since October 2010.
? Dollar Index: KEY CHART. ST weak location printing below the 2month poc at 82.75 but only just so this could change quickly. LT strong location above the 81.35 1/2R level. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
? EURUSD: also this chart printing almost at the 24mn poc at 1.3070 so difficult to gauge.
Watching particularly TLT and Dollar Index. Price location is not clear enough here to imply a bias for equities.
