posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open Friday 19th February
Significant Buyers were active again on Thursday (green-at-top). The Value Area was overlapping and although wider than Wednesdays was only 4.8 whereas the 20day average VA is 7.8. Volume was also up but again much less than the 20day average. I have great difficulty classifying this as Effective Buying.
Nevertheless, buyers are active, the market is higher with no sign of a response yet from the Sellers and most importantly nearly all the price action for the last two sessions has taken place above the major poc at 1094. This is the major level to watch on any timeframe.
Dollar index once again closed above its major half level at 80.15 and EURUSD printed a new low. Dollar strength would most likely make it difficult for stocks to advance. Dollar index is overbought with the price oscillator showing negative divergence. EURUSD is oversold with the price oscillator showing positive divergence.
Bullish: is these charts reversing and ES holding above 1094.
Bearish: is Dollar Index holding above 80.15 and ES falling back below 1094 especially if I mark Significant Selling below that level.
ST sentiment: On Thursday my version of the Rydex Assets ratio was up slightly to 1.44. The mutual fund timers are not jumping on this rally and from a contrarian pov this is usually positive for the market.
