posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 1st April
Wednesday’s session held above the 1318 poc printing enough time at 1324 to lift the 15day poc to this level. As the minor poc migrated higher the 8dayVAH also migrated higher to 1327 and therefore ES is no longer overbought relative to this measurement of Value. 1324 is now First Level Support and is the first level to watch for a sign of minor weakness.
First Level Support = 1324 (15day poc)
Second Level Support = 1318 (2mth poc)
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls at 41.8% which is a six week high and Bears at 31.1% which is a six week low. lipperusfundsflow.com reported net Equity Fund inflows at $6.1 billion for week to 30th March.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 3.55 (a 22day high). A ratio above 3 is historically very high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Got close last week but failed to test the November high at 1.4282, still in strong price location though.
? UDX: Probe below November’s low last week was rejected and printing close to a new 10day high today but the Dollar Index is still in a weak price location.
+ TLT: pre-open prints back below the 91.82 poc and for now at least that negates the bullish higher low pattern above that level that I thought may be forming.
These charts are mixed – difficult to infer a bias for equities.
