posted 09.11 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 1st February
pre-open yesterday>>A day of Effective Buying followed by a day of Ineffective Selling is not necessarily a bearish pattern so we need more evidence (i.e. Effective Selling) to assume further weakness on even the minor timeframe.<<
Thursday’s session generated a lower, narrower value Area on less Volume. Wednesday’s low was tested which is the minimum expectation following a red-at-bottom low. See yesterday’s pre-open comments highlighted on graphic. Overnight ES made a brief probe below 1497 (the 22day poc) and pre-open has rallied back to Wednesday’s session high at 1505.50. If that price or higer is seen during today’s session it will negate any negative implications of Wednesday’s Selling imbalances.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 84% and Nasdaq 75%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually consideed overbought.
Dayframe: The very minor (now 22day) poc at 1497 (dashed) is the best reference level for ST Support/Resistance intraday.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.62. Yesterday’s 4.81 was the highest reading since 28th September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012. Elsewhere Sentiment readings have pushed to extreme levels – more in today’s webcast.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: Last two days has probed below the major poc Support at 117.15. Time below this level is weak price location and imo would be a positive for equities. Pre-open today it prints at that Support.
? Commodities: Oil USO is overbought technically but printing above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Price holding above this level indicates further strength. Pre-open Gold GLD is printing above the 161.0 major poc. Silver SLV is an interesting chart, has again rallied to 31.25, its major poc, but has not exceeded it.
+ Dollar Index: is printing below 79.80, the 2yr poc and momentum is negative and down.
+ EURUSD: Chart has cleared the Resistance at 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low) and today has printed its highest level since Nov 2011.
imo these charts are currently mixed but most likely have a slight positive bias for equities. Key Charts: Watch particularly TLT relative to 117.15 and SLV relative to 31.25.
