posted 9.26 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 1st July
The 1/2R Resistance at 1310 was exceeded early in the session and ES generated another higher Value Area and strong close. Note that today is one year from July low 2010 and 60days from market high in May.
Dayframe: Key Charts to watch
SPY – high yesterday was 132.18 which is the 9month poc.
QQQ – pre-open prints just above its 9month poc at 56.94.
Watch these two charts post-open and also XLK 1/2R off Feb high at 25.71.
%Stocks>50dyma – Nyse back above 50 at 54% – Nasdaq number at 44%.
1st Level Resistance = 1327 (maj poc)
1st Level Support = 1310 (1/2R off May high) (131.68 SPY)
2nd Level Support = 1306.50 (min poc)
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll showed Bulls% at 38.3 and the Nett (Bulls minus Bears) at 8.1 – both at their highest since w/e 04/15. Increasing Bullishness but not reflected in the Rydex ratio below.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 1.95. We’ve now had four consecutive strong days this week but the ratio is lower than it was on Friday – that is most likely ST Bullish. Bear Fund assets that I follow are now at the highest since November. Note that ratio on 06/21 at 1.82 was the lowest level since October.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Chart currently printing above (just) the 1.450 Resistance (1/2R off May high). Momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
+ Dollar Index: 12day low printed on Thursday. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
+ TLT: Chart printed a 40day low on Thursday. Momentum (PriceOsc) is down.
imo these charts imply a positive ST bias for equities.
