posted 9.28 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 1st June
Shortly before the day session Close there was a price probe above First Level Resistance at 1314.50 which was swiftly rejected. By the end of the session ES was printing back below the maj poc and has not printed back above that level since. Following a weak jobs report pre-open, ES has printed as low as 1280.
Now that ES prints below 1307 it is difficult, once again, to identify Support on this chart close to current price. The next obvious level of poc Support is around 1250. At current levels then Bulls should look for Significant Buying to be marked back above 1307 or price finding Support lower.
First Level Resistance = 1307 (maj poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio printed the same number, 2.98, as last Friday’s ratio which is a four month low. Even so, intermediate bottoms nearly always see a lower ratio than this so I don not consider this number useful at the moment. The AAII (public) poll reported Bulls at 28% (down from 30.5%). Bears came in at 42% (up from 38.7%). The nett at -14 is low but not as low as it was w/e 18th May when it reached -22.4 (the highest negative number since September last year).
The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower this week at 28.65 (from 31.78). This is the lowest number since w/e 29th Oct last year. Like the other consensus polls, this is a contrarian indicator.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
– EURUSD: Major poc is at 1.2777. Today’s low at 1.2288 is the lowest print since July 2010.
– Dollar Index: Today’s high at 83.43 is the highest print since August 2010.
– TLT: Has today printed a new high.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities.
