ES rejected price above 2095.50 (4mn poc) immediately after the open on Thursday, see yesterday’s highlighted comments, and the Value Area was generate entirely below this level. Strictly applying my rules I had to mark Aggressive Selling and 80% of the time these red-at-bottom lows are tested within a day (or two). New longs are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Breadth numbers weakened quite sharply and are now below 50%, see below.
First Level Resistance = 2095.50 (4mn poc)
First Level Support = ES 2045.00 (7mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 44% (from 55%), Nasdaq 38% (from 50%), R2000 36% (from 51%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher again at 11.92 which is an 24day high. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: closed on Thursday at a 37 day low. Currently printing below 129.80, the 6mn poc, in a weak price location.
Gold GLD: closed down on Thursday below 115.12, the 11mn poc in a weak price location.
Oil USO:closed on Thursday at its highest level this year. Has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location.
EURUSD: in February broke below the major 1/2R at 1.1241. There was a swift decline but chart has now rallied back to probe that level which is now Resistance.
