Pre-open Friday 1st October
Thursday was a volatile day. ES broke out to a new rally high at the open but immediately met with Responsive Selling which left Significant Sellers marked on the profile by the close (red-at-top). This was not Effective Selling however as the Value Area was overlapping.
First Level S/R for today’s session stays at 1139 (7week poc).
Pre-open ES has printed as high 1144.50.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up again from 1.78 to 1.82, the highest level since Aug 10th. Note that the 20week high for this ratio is 1.97 which could easily be exceeded here and would put me on higher alert. Also, amgdata reported Equity Fund inflows of $319 million which although not a large weekly inflow lifted the 4week flow number to the highest since Jan 2009 which is a cause for concern. Not yet confirming any bullish excess are the option ratios and, just to confound things, the AAII (public) Bulls came in lower and the Bears higher – didn’t expect that.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: Weak position and lower again today.
+ EURUSD: New six month high today.
+ UDX: New eight month low today.
– TLT: currently printing back below the major 1/2R level resistance at 105.22
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
