posted 9.27 a.m. est
Pre-open Friday 20th August
See yesterday’s highlighted comments. ES spent most time yesterday close to the 3mth poc at 1073. Overnight ES has been as low as 1063.50. A Value Area printed below 1073 would indicate lower. Effective Selling marked below 1073 would strongly indicate lower.
Dayframe: If Buyers are going to respond here then a probe below the 3mth VAL at 1061 would be opportunity. Look for a snapback especially if it’s early in the session.
Intraday resistance from 1073 poc or 1065.25 (1/2R off July low) would indicate lower ST.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up from 0.99 to 1.14. Wednesday’s number was the lowest since 13th July but yesterday’s down day saw Bear Fund assets that I follow decline by nearly 13% which is not bullish ST. The ISEE index (equity only) came in at 151. This was down from an extremely high number on Wednesday of 256, the highest single reading for four months.
You can see that Wednesday’s data was very mixed. The Rydex ratio showing extreme bears and the ISEE index showing extreme bulls. Best guess based on this data is we go lower ST but downside is limited at the moment.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: New multi-year low last week.
– EURUSD: New 28day low today and PriceOsc lower for nine consecutive days.
– UDX: New 20day high today.
– IEF: This week IEF reached the highest level since Jan 09.
imo these charts are not positive for equities at the moment.
