Pre-open comment Friday 20th February.
I have marked Significant Buying five times in seven days and Significant Sellers are still absent. Only Significant Selling marked below 2033.50 would be a first sign of weakness for the LT trend.
Dayframe: Once again Buyers Reacted to a test of the previous day’s VAL (as on Tuesday). Both times Buyers saw price at 2087.00 as opportunity. This corresponds to the minor (8day) Value Area Low and therefore if price is accepted (time) below this level today it would the first sign of weakness on the very minor timeframe and negate any ST postive implications of those imbalances.
First Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)
All four major stock index ETFs have positive and increasing Price Momentum (PriceOsc).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68% (from 70%), Nasdaq 66% (from 65%), R2000 64% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 11.20.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: reached a new high at the end of January but lower this month. Momentum (PriceOsc) is now negative and chart printed a 32day low on Tuesday.
Dollar Index: on 01/23 printed its highest level since 2003. In recent webcasts I have talked about the possibility of a turn here for the dollar. Watching levels on EURUSD (below) and AUDUSD in particular.
Gold GLD: since probing the Resistance at 124.12 (major poc) three weeks ago, GLD has given back nearly all of last month’s strong gains and printed a 30day low on Wednesday.
Oil USO: on 12/12 broke below the extreme low of Feb 2009 and fell sharply. Has rallied this month.
EURUSD: has been declining since May last year and has reached major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Has held above that level this month but prints close to that level.
