S&P 500 emini pre-open Friday 20th June

posted 09.05 a.m. est

Interesting how the minor poc has been migrating, see previous highlighted comments. On Tuesday it fell to 1922.50 where ES subsequently found Support (see dashed line) and has now moved back up to 1949.00. Will this level now provide Support? Negatives: VIX has fallen to its lowest level since 2007 indicating a concerning level of complacency; momentum for all four Stock Index ETFs (although positive) is down. Positives: Buyers are active and as long as ES holds above 1949.00 it is in a strong ST price location. SmallCaps have started to outperform.

ES First Level S/R = 1949.00 (min poc)
ES LT Support = 1872.00 (maj poc)

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 78% (from 76%), Nasdaq 68% (from 69%), R2000 70% (from 71%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.

Sentiment: Rydex data is unavailable so far today. I will update if possible in today’s webcast. On Wednesday my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was sharply lower at 7.20. Bear Fund Assets that I follow were up 23%. Ratio was down from Monday’s 9.40 which is the highest ratio in my database. VIX printed 10.42, it’s lowest since early 2007.

Dollar Index and Bonds (TLT) have held LT strong price location which is a LT concern for equities, see below.

Financial Sector XLF: printing above 22.04, its Major 1/2R level.
EURJPY: chart is printing below 140.96, the 1/2R off Dec high in a weak price location.
Bonds TLT: Remains in a strong LT price location. Printed a 27day low on Thursday and Momentum is negative.
Dollar Index: Holds a strong price location above 79.76, the maj poc.
Gold GLD: Gold posted its biggest one day jump in nine months and now prints in a strong/stronger price location above 124.12, the 2yr poc. Consolidation above this level this level would be a sign of further strength.
Oil USO: printing above 37.96 in a strong price location and approaches the September high 39.54.
EURUSD: printing below 1.3673, the 12mn poc in a weak price location.