posted 9.27 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 21st December
Thursday’s day session generated a lower, wider Value Area. No Significant Buying or Selling was marked but this is currently a news driven market and overnight ES spiked violently lower. Has recovered somewhat and pre-open prints below 1420. See price location (below) which is most important.
First Level Support = 1413 (3mn poc).
Second Level Support = 1406 (maj poc)
Breadth. %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72% and Nasdaq 64%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Price location: major equity ETFs need hold above their 1/2R levels which are: SPY 141.40; IWM 81.55; DIA 130.45. Pre-open today KEY CHART QQQ is printing below 65.95 (1/2R) and just below its major Support at 64.84 (15mn poc). The other 1/2R levels could also be threatened if there is further weakness during the session.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.57 from Wednesdays 3.80 which was a 30 day high for the ratio.
AAII (public poll) reported Bulls% higher again at 46.4% (from 43.2%) the highest since w/e 10th February. Bears% fell again to 24.8% (from 30.1%), the lowest since w/e 10th February. Obviously the nett at 21.6 is the highest since that date and the 4wk ma of nett is now the highest since April. Optimisim is increasing rapidly here.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
+ EURUSD: This week printed its highest level since April. Currently printing above 1.3117, the 24mn poc which is strong price location.
? Dollar Index: currently printing below the 80.15 major level which is weak price location. May have found Support at the 79.19 poc.
+ TLT: Hit a 40day low this week. Pre-open has printed a four day high with First Resisatnce at the 1/2R at 122.62.
imo these charts have a slight positive bias for equities.
