Pre-open comment Friday 21st January
Thursday’s low came in at exactly the 1267.50 Support and the session high just below the First Level S/R at 1281.50 – both given pre-open. Support and Resistance levels remain the same for today, the 1281.50 poc has not migrated lower. Pre-open ES prints just above that level and if it can print some time there after the open it will be back in a ST stronger location. The 8day VAH at 1285.50 (dotted) is the best guess choice for Resistance above 1281.50.
First Level S/R = 1281.50 (19dy poc)
Support = 1267.50 (poc)
Major Support = 1254 (56dy poc)
LT Sentiment: The AAII (public) poll showed %Bulls at 50.7 (down from 52.3) and %Bears at 29.1 (up from 23.4). This gives a net (Bulls minus Bears) of 21.6 which is the lowest net for nine weeks. Lipperusfundflows.com (formerly amgdata) reported net Equity Fund Inflows of $6.8 Billion which is another large number. The 4wk flow (sum) was slightly lower than last week’s which was the highest since October 2008.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down from 3.94 (the highest reading in my database) to 3.67, still extremely high but the ISEE (equity-only) index came in at 150 which was the lowest single number since 29th November.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities)
+ EURUSD: Back in strong price location above 1.3087, the 1/2R off the June low. And today has printed a new 39dy high.
+ UDX: Currently prints back below 80.15, the major 1/2R. This is a weaker price location.
+ TLT: Closest reference level is the 2month poc at 92.56. Chart currently in weak location below that level and yesterday printed its lowest level since April last year.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
