posted 08.10 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 21st June
On Thursday I marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) for the second time this week. Red-at-bottom lows are tested within a day (or two) 80% of the time, although as I’ve mentioned before that stat is not as reliable following a gap. The entire Value Area was generated below 1628poc so this is weak price location; breadth has deteriorated and daily trend (price osc <0) has been down since 6th June. Back on 2nd May the 30day poc at that time migrated to 1581 and it stayed as the poc level of Support until the 4th June. This previous poc level is the best Support I have here.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36%, Nasdaq 50%, R2000 49%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
First Level Resistance = ES 1628 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down at 3.58 (from 4.14). I’m watching the ratio relative to its 5month low which was 3.27 printed on 25th April. So, an increase in Bearish sentiment in the Rydex data but both the AAII (public) and Investors Intelligence polls reported an increase in Bulls and a decrease in Bears this week which is of concern (contrarian), more in today’s webcast.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: On Thursday printed its lowest level since Sep 2011.
Oil USO: Thursday’s bar was printed below the 34.20 area of S/R. Momentum is up and positive.
Gold GLD: On Thursday printed its lowest level since Sep 2010.
Silver SLV: On Thursday printed its lowest level since Sep 2010.
Dollar Index: Has so far held maj Support which is the major poc at 80.15. And is now printing back above 81.10, the 1/2R off 2009 high at 81.10. Momentum is negative but up.
EURUSD: Currently printing very close to 1.3228, the 1/2R off Feb high. Momentum is positive but has turned down.
