posted 08.20 a.m. est
Thursday’s session generated a higher, narrower Value Area on lower Volume. All Value Areas this week have been printed entirely above 1949, the 4mn poc. Over the last ten days I have marked Significant Buying five times and no Significant Selling.
ES First Level Support = 1949.00 (4mn poc)
ES Major Support = 1872 (maj poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57% (from 55%), Nasdaq 48% (from 47%), R2000 51% (from 48%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 7.45. From the recent market high SPY has fully retraced the decline but the ratio has only retraced a third which suggests the Rydex traders are not “buying” the rally and from a contrarian viewpoint that’s positive. On 07/29 the ratio reached 10.47, the highest in my database.
VIX closed at 11.76, a 21day low. It reached 17.57 on 08/01, the highest reading since early April.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: last week printed its highest level since May last year which represented a test above the Resistance area between 116.70 and 117.15. Pre-open today chart prints within that band. Bulls would want to see time printed back this Resistance as soon as possible.
Dollar Index: on Thursday printed its highest level since early September
Gold GLD: the 30mn poc recently migrated to 124.15. That Support was broken on Thursday.
Oil USO: On Tuesday printed its lowest level since February and prints just above the Support at 34.17, the 1/2R off 2009 low.
EURUSD: Chart prints below 1.3416, the 1/2R off 2010 low, in a weak price location and on Thursday printed its lowest level since September.
