pre-open comment Friday 22nd June
Longframe: This week we have been looking for positive confirmation of the improving ST analysis, see comments from earlier in the week. Unfortunately, this week’s Key Charts have not printed above their Resistance levels (IWM 79.00 and QQQ 64.30) and the %Stocks>50dyma numbers have not yet printed above 50%. We need to see these confirmations especially with the CP Market Timing system remaining negative. Note that if SPY closes today below Monday’s low at 133.28 it will indicate Sellers active on the Weekly timeframe.
Dayframe: On Thursday I marked Responsive Selling (red-at-top) and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom). New Long trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Buying is marked again. Wednesday’s First Level Support at 1334.50 was broken – this is now Resistance.
First Level Resistance = 1334.50 (1/2R) SPY = 134.67
First Level Support = 1314.50 (50dypoc)
Second Level Support = 1307 (maj poc) SPY = 131.93
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 3.50 (from 3.70) .
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart printing below the Major poc at 1.2777 and currently prints at the 1.2570 (minor poc). However, momentum is up.
? Dollar Index: Prints well above the important level at 80.15 but momentum is down. Minor level to watch today is the 1/2R off June high at 82.36.
? TLT: momentum is down. Minor level to watch today is the 1/2R off June high at 127.23.
If momentum indicators were to reverse it would be easier to imply a bias for equities from these charts. Currently it is difficult to do this.
