pre-open comment Friday 22nd March
The minor poc was at 1549 as of pre-open yesterday and that was the high of Thursday’s session. Following that probe into Resistance ES sold off and Aggressive Selling was marked (red-at-bottom). That’s the first Effective Selling I have marked since mid December. New long trades are now eliminated for me.
Dayframe: The minor poc migrated slightly lower to 1547 during yesterday’s session and that is First Level Resistance today. The minor VAL is now at 1538 and Thursday’s low was a test of that level. As yesterday’s Value Area was printed entirely above that VAL I’m not overly confident about the further weakness that the Selling Balance suggests. Effective Selling below 1538 would be more convincing but I aam not interested in new longs at least until Significant Buying is marked again.
First Level Resistance = ES 1547 (24dy poc)
Support = ES 1517.50 (3mn poc)
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 69%, Nasdaq 64%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 3.91 from (4.58). The recent low was 3.49 in early February and the recent high at 5.22 in mid February. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Momentum = daily PriceOsc
? Bonds TLT: Pre-open the chart prints very close to the maj poc at 117.15. Price below 117.15 is weak location.
? Oil USO: three weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location. Momentum is up.
? Gold GLD: showed weakness after it broke below 161.0, the major poc, four weeks ago but Momentum is positive now and up.
? Silver SLV: Still in a weak price location and has been in a narrow range for five weeks. Momentum is positive and up.
– Dollar Index: strong price location above 81.35, major 1/2R. Momentum (although positive) is down.
– EURUSD: The 24mn poc has migrated to 1.3070. Chart is still in a weak price location below that level and on Tuesday printed its lowest level since November. Momentum (although negative) is up.
imo these charts are not clear re bias for equities.
