Pre-open comment Friday 22nd May
Dayframe: see yesterday’s comments. On Thursday an early probe below 2123.50, the very minor (4dy) poc, was rejected and Reactive Buying was marked. As already mentioned, this week’s range is narrow and will likely extend. Pre-open today (after inflation data) ES has again probed that minor Support and price below 2123.50 post-open would negate any ST positive implications of that green-at-bottom low.
Longframe: As long as ES holds above 2095.50 it is in a strong price location.
Support = 2095.50 (10mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 58% (from 57%), Nasdaq 49% (unch), R2000 48% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 11.27. Tuesday’s ratio at 9.85 was a four month low and Bear Fund assets that I follow reached a five month high. The highest ratio in the database was at 14.06 on 03/02
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: has this week printed its lowest level since November and probed 119,26, the 12mn poc. More important Support at 117.14, maj poc.
Dollar Index: Last week printed its lowest level since 22nd Jan but is now printing back above 94.67, the 12mn poc which is stronger price location.
Gold GLD: down sharply on Tuesday and appears to have been rejected by the Resistance at 117.60, the 1/2R off the November low. Support at 115.12, the 12mn poc – price below that level would indicate further weakness.
Oil USO: earlier this month printed its highest level since December and since early April has been printing above 18.39, the 12mn poc, in a stronger price location but closed at a fifteen day low on Tuesday.
EURUSD: last week printed its highest level since February but is today printing below the major 1/2R (1.1241)
