posted 09.12 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 23rd August
See Wednesday’s highlighted comments.
Both Significant Buyers and Sellers have been active this week. Actually on alternate days. This seemingly unusual activity is understandable in the area of an important poc because both parties see opportunity. To my mind a poc is a level representing value, i.e. Buyers see it as an area to Buy and Sellers see it as an area to Sell and a tug-of-war takes place. Time is spent and value, i.e. the poc, builds. The implications of the red and green imbalances are therefore less reliable close to a poc until one side “wins”.
For now there is encouragement for ST Bulls. The Value Areas this week have, more or less, been generated above the 1644.50 poc and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) has now been marked above that level. Price below this proven level would obviously be a negative.
SPY low on Thursday was 164.89. The important Support is the 164.90 poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 54% (from 45%), Nasdaq 58% (from 51%), R2000 56% (from 46%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 3.42. The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: A minor rally w/e 08/09 found Resistance at the 4mn poc. Chart printed a two year low on Wednesday.
Oil USO: Difficult chart currently giving few clues relative to the 1/2R off 2011 high at 37.31 and 37.93 its maj poc.
Gold GLD: Chart approaches Resistance at 134.17, the 12mn poc. If chart should print time above this level it would be in a much stronger price location.
Dollar Index: Currently in weak price location below the major poc at 82.73. Bulls would want to see price recover that level. Momentum is negative but up.
EURUSD: Earlier this week chart reached 1.3418, the 1/2R off June 2010 low, but has not yet overcome this Resistance.
