posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 24th June
On Thursday I marked Responsive Buying (green-at-bottom). Short trades eliminated for me until Significant Sellers are marked again. Buyers Responded just below the 8dayVAL.
Dayframe: Today the 8dayVAL comes in at 1257 with the 8dayVAH at 1280. Note that 1280.50 is the 30day poc and ES prints very close to this level pre-open. Based on that information I would suggest that more time spent around 1280 post-open would be bullish if ES subsequently exceeds that level.
1st Level S/R = 1280.50
2nd Level Support = 1265.50
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll Bulls% at 37.5 is the highest for eight weeks, Bears% came in at 35.7 giving a nett of 1.8, the first positive nett for seven weeks. Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll had Bears at 28% the highest since October last year and the nett at 9.6 is the lowest since late September.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 2.12. Tuesday’s ratio at 1.82 was the lowest level since October.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
– EURUSD: Chart failed on Wednesday just below the 1.450 min ST Resistance (1/2R off May high). Momentum (PriceOsc) is down. 1.3920 to 1.3965 is a band of maj LT support.
? Dollar Index: Chart found resistance at the descending trendline off the major high in June 2010. Momentum (PriceOsc) is up.
? TLT: On Thursday chart printed its highest level since November. Has been oscillating around the 3yr poc at 96.28. Needs to break above the major 1/2R at 98.32 to confirm another leg up but chart is OB so this may be a problem.
imo these charts are mixed and it is difficult to imply a ST bias for equities.
