posted 7.50 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 27th April
On Thursday I marked Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) above the 1/2R Resistance at 1386 (see previous, highlighted comments). The Index ETF charts IWM and QQQ which had found Resistance at the their equivalent 1/2R closed above those levels. This is constructive. As long as ES holds above 1386 (now Support) it is in a strong price location.
Dayframe: The three month VAH is at 1404, if ES stalls at this level it may find price around 1395 attractive and imo this would be bullish. New short trades are now eliminated for me until Significant Selling (red) is marked again.
Potential Support/Resistance = 1395 (2month poc).
First Level Support = 1386 1/2R off March high
Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls lower at 27.6% (from 31.2%) which is the lowest number since w/e Sept 23rd last year, i.e. a seven month low in optimism. Bears were higher at 37.4% (from 33.8%). The nett is therefore -9.8, and the 4wk ma of nett is -3.88, the first negative reading for the ma since December. This poll turned very pessimistic two weeks ago; my comment on 13th April “quite a dramatic change in sentiment and from a contrarian viewpoint is bullish”.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was only slightly higher at 4.38 (from 4.17). Last week the Ratio was down at 3.71 which was a 25dy low.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: Chart currently holding above the four month poc Support at 1.3069 and printed a 15dy high on Thursday.
+ Dollar Index: Chart printing below the 79.09 (the 5mnth poc).
– TLT: N/A yet today – see webcast later today
