Pre-open comment Friday 27th January
ES has not yet convincingly cleared the 1315 Resistance. Pre-open today the 1307 poc Support is being tested. Time below that level would be the first indication of weakness.
First Level Support = 1307 (30dy poc) SPY = 131.28
Second Level Support = ES 1271.50 (poc) SPY = 127.91
Sentiment: AAII (public poll) reported Bulls slightly higher at 48.4% (up from 47.2%). The highest Bulls% since w/e 18th Feb 2011 was two weeks ago. Bears were lower at 18.9%. The 4wk ma of the nett at 29.18 is the highest number since January 2011. Lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund Inflows of $7.7 Bil in the week to 25th Jan. That’s the highest since early November. When the 4wk flow gets to plus or minus $18 bil it often marks a contrarian extreme; currently at $11.80. It reached $17.1 bil in November and a negative -$27 bil in mid August last year. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 2.94. Wednesday’s ratio at 3.38 was the highest reading for more than five months.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: Currently prints above the 1.2811 poc with momentum up.
+ Dollar Index: pre-open Chart prints below the important 80.15 level. Momentum is down.
+ TLT: currently the chart prints slightly below the 10month poc at 117.88.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
