Pre-open comment Friday 27th March
Thursday generated a third consecutive lower Value Area. The Support at 2033.50 has not yet been broken – price below this level would be weaker price location.
First Level Resistance = 2066.50 (7mn poc)
First Level Support = 2033.50 (previous poc)
Stock Index ETFs: Momentum (PriceOsc) is positive for IWM (smallcaps) but has turned down. Momentum is negative for SPY, DIA and QQQ and has turned down.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 51% (from 53%), Nasdaq 54% (from 56%), R2000 59% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 11.75 (from 11.51). Usually when SPY declines by 3.5% or more (as it has done since the February high) the ratio will fall by at least 30%. This time has not done but the decline this week may introduce some fear. On 03/02 the ratio reached 14.06, the highest ratio in the database.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: needs to recover back above 130.75, the 1/2R off the Jan high. pre-open the Chart is printing below this level.
Dollar Index: on 03/13 chart printed its highest level since 2003. Has corrected from there but there is Support at 94.67, the 12mn poc.
Gold GLD: Last week printed its lowest level this year but has rallied from there and pre-open today is printing close to 115.12, the 12mn poc. Time above this level would be a positive.
Oil USO: printed a new low last week but has rallied a little this week.
EURUSD: fell since May last year to major 1/2R Support at 1.1241. Chart held above that level through February but broke that Support earlier this month.
