posted 09.25 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 27th September
There are two important poc levels on this chart. The poc at 1685.50 which provided Support over the last few days has shifted slightly higher (maybe temporarily) to 1689. With ES printing below that level, 1689 is First Level Resistance at the end of this week. Should price print time below the proven Support at 1685.50 it would indicate further weakness. Checking the half hour distribution including the December contract, the next level of Support is the poc at 1653. We have not yet seen a convincing Response from the Buyers and with the shift in that poc (albeit slight) the chart may want to probe lower. At current levels I need to see Significant Buying marked above 1689 before considering new longs.
Index ETFs: Momentum (Price Osc) has turned down now for all four ETFs.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 66%, Nasdaq 64%, R2000 64%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
Resistance = 1689.00
Support/Resistance today = 1685.50.00
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged again at 4.18. Yesterday’s ratio was a 78day high (this is a contrarian indicator). The ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012).
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: Printed a 31day high on Wednesday probing the 6mn poc at 107.22. Pre-open chart prints just below that level. Price above that level would put the chart in a much stronger location.
Oil USO: Closed Thursday below 37.31, the low of the Support/Resistance band, for the third consecutive day. Momentum is negative and down.
Gold GLD: remains below 134.17, the 12mn poc, in a weak price location. Momentum is negative but has turned up.
Dollar Index: Last week’s sharp sell-off briefly tested the important Support at 80.15 (major 1/2R and poc). Dollar Bulls would hope this holds, price printing time below this level would put the chart in an extremely weak location.
EURUSD: Last week printed its highest level since February. Momentum is up and positive.
