posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 28th January
Dayframe: I said pre-open on Thursday that we “may well see more consolidation as ES is up into the 8dayVAH which has slowed price recently”. ES did in fact consolidate further, printing an overlapping Value Area which has lifted the 10day poc to 1293. That is now First Level Support and if ES can hold above that level in the early part of today’s session I would anticipate a strong end to the day/week.
Second Level Support = 1281.50 poc (8dayVAL = 1281)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio is now at 3.00. This is historically still very high but down from last Wednesday’s ratio at 3.94 which was the highest reading I have in my database.
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported 42% Bulls which is down from 50.8 last week and down from the highest recent number at 63.3. Bears at 34.3% which is up from 29.1 last week and up from the lowest recent figure at 16.3%. Over the last five weeks the market has gone up but the Bear% has almost doubled and even though the nett number is still extremely high, in the short term I’m seeing these recent numbers as bullish.
lipperusfundsflow reported Equity Fund inflows of $996 million which is not a high number but enough to lift the 4wk flow to 22.70, the highest since Oct 2008.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities)
+ EURUSD: Strong. New 44day high on Thursday.
+ UDX: Weak. New 50day low on Thursday.
+ TLT: Closest reference level is the 2month poc at 92.56. Chart remains weak below that level.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
