posted 9.06 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 28th September
Repeating what I wrote pre-open Wednesday – You can see on the chart that Significant Buyers and Sellers have both been active recently. There is a struggle for control of the dayframe – this continues to be the case. On Thursday I marked Aggressive Buying but ES is still printing below 1446 (dotted) the minor 1/2R off the recent high. Even in the very short timeframe I would want to see ES printing time above that level before assuming strength and Significant Buying marked above that level before considering new long trades.
First Level S/R = 1435.00 (25dy poc)
Support = 1397 (8mn poc)
Key chart levels this week: monitoring Maj 1/2R (off 2000 high):
QQQ = 70.13. Nasdaq Comp = 3120.50. Nasdaq 100 = 2805.60.
Sentiment: In the Investors Intelligence and AAII polls and in the NAAIM number there was an increase in bearishness reported this week. More in today’s webcast. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.50. The ratio reached 5.51 on 09/18 – I only have one ratio higher than this in my database (5.64 on 3rd April). This level of optimism from the Rydex traders usually indicates limited upside.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: The major poc remains at 1.2777 but the 12mnth poc migrated to 1.3117. As the chart currently prints back below this level, 1.3117 is now Resistance of some importance. Chart printing time above 1.3117 would be strong price location. Momentum has turned down.
? Dollar Index: is printing between the major level at 80.15 and the 79.19 poc. Price above 80.15 or below 79.19 would be strong/weak strong price location.
? TLT: is rallying back towards the 125.93 (5mn poc) Resistance. Price above that level would be a strong price location and a negative for equities.
It is difficult to imply an ST bias for equities from these charts.
