Pre-open comment Friday 29th July
Aggressive Sellers marked again.
We now have three levels which are very close in the time they have attracted over the last six months. These are 1327, 1315 and 1308. One of these will emerge as the major poc. Sampling on a five minute basis, the poc has just migrated to 1308. This makes sense because on the ES cont. chart 1308 is the middle of the price range. Therefore 1308 is a doubly important level and the more time spent below that level the greater the chance of further weakness. I repeat from yesterday – I am extremely cautious here.
Resistance = 1315 (poc) (131.98 SPY)
First Level S/R = 1308 (maj poc)
LT Sentiment: Investors Intelligence (newsletters) poll has Bulls at 49.5%, the highest since mid May. Certainly no sign of panic there or in the the AAII (public) poll where the Bulls% has changed very little in the last five weeks.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly to 3.21.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: prints above the band of maj LT support between 1.3920 to 1.3965 but below the 1/2R off May high at 1.44.
+ Dollar Index: In a weak position below the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: oscillating around the 3yr_poc at 96.28 since late May. Currently prints above that level.
imo these charts are mixed and do not have an obvious bias for equities.
