posted 9.15 a.m. et
pre-open comment Friday 29th June
On Thursday ES briefly tested the major poc Support at 1307 (see chart). This was immediately rejected and ES has rapidly auctioned higher. The positive in the longer timeframe is that the decline off the June high was Supported at this level; no Value Area was generated entirely below it (see Wednesday’s comments highlighted) and no Significant Selling was marked below it. Looks like a higher low at a major poc which is often a bullish pattern.
The %Stocks>50dyma numbers have not printed above 50 since very early in May but a strong Close today could see that happen which would be another positive.
Pre-open today the chart is printing well above the 1/2R (off March high) Resistance which is a much stronger price location; this is now First Level Support. If market Closes strong there will be clear 1/2R Support Levels going into next week. To be discussed in today’s webcast.
New Key Charts/Levels: pre-open SPY is printing above 134.67, its 1/2R. DIA pre-open low is its 1/2R at 126.66. IWM is testing the 79.00 maj poc Resistance.
First Level Support = 1334.50 (1/2R) SPY = 134.67
Major Support = 1307 (maj poc) SPY = 131.93
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged again at 3.06. On 5th June the ratio reached 2.25 which was a four month low coinciding with the recent market low. The ratio below 2.25 or above 3.70 would give us useful information.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: strong higher today. The minor poc migrated lower to 1.2496, this is now First Level Support. Resistance at 1.2777, the maj poc.
? Dollar Index: weak today below 82.36, the 1/2R off June high. Major Support at 80.15.
+ TLT: the Minor 1/2R off June high at 127.23 was tested and rejected again on Thursday. Chart sharply lower today.
imo these charts now imply a slight positive bias for equities.
