Pre-open Friday 29th October
See yesterday’s comments (highlighted). Monday’s poc at 1186 was the Minor Resistance given and that’s where the Sellers Responded (red-at-top). ES was quickly auctioned back to the 30day poc at 1178. In fact 1178 attracted more time during the session building the poc further. Pre-open ES has probed up into that level.
Dayframe: The Significant Selling marked yesterday means that long trades are eliminated for me. If ES finds it difficult to build value above the obvious Resistance at 1178 (First Level S/R) we could see a weak end to the week. Consolidation below that level after the open and I would be looking to short. If ES is going to end the week strong then Buyers will bring it back above 1178 early in the session.
Longframe: Still waiting for Effective Selling. If I mark that below 1178, I’d be expecting a decline to the poc at 1139.
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) Bulls% came in at 51.2 which is the highest since May2008. The %Bears at 21.6 is the lowest for years. The Nett at 29.6 is the highest single reading since January 2007. This level of enthusiasm in this public poll is usually a warning.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly from 2.20 (the highest ratio since May) to 2.01.
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: Price Osc has been up for ten consecutive days but this chart probing down towards the recent low.
– EURUSD: Major 1/2R at 1.3965 (off the 2008 high) in play. Chart currently printing below that level. Price Osc down for sixeen consecutive days.
? UDX: there’s been little bounce from the ten month low set on the 15th but Price Osc up for eleven consecutive days.
+ TLT: chart still in weak location with confirmed lower high and lower low.
imo these charts are mixed and have no obvious ST bias for equities. EURUSD will provide a big clue re IT direction for Equities, specifically if it finds resistance or support at the Major 1/2.
