posted 09.25 a.m. est
pre-open comment Friday 2nd August
Thursday’s session generated a higher Value Area above the previously rejected level of 1694. The LT analysis remains positive and in the ST ES is breaking to a new high here with no Response yet from the Significant Sellers As long as ES holds above the minor (13day poc) at 1682.50 it is in a strong price location.
1st Level LT Support = ES 1677.00 (30dy poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 75%, Nasdaq 76%, R2000 76%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 3.50 which is a 28day high but to put that in persective; the ratio reached as high as 5.43 at the market May high and as low as 2.15 on 07/10 (which was the lowest ratio since January 2012). With the market higher than the May high the ratio has been slow to climb.
Supporting Charts
Bonds TLT: On Thursday chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2011.
Oil USO: Pre-open chart is back above 37.31, 1/2R off 2011 high and pre-open is printing at 38.00 Resistance which was previously the major poc. Time spent here could lift the major poc back to this level which would be interesting.
Gold GLD: printed a 5week high last week. The low on 06/28 was the lowest since Aug 2010.
Silver SLV: Momentum is positive but turned down on Friday. w/e 06/28 chart printed its lowest level since Aug 2010.
Dollar Index: On 07/09 printed its highest level since July 2010 but declined sharply from there and is now printing below 82.73, the 12mn poc which is weaker price location. Dollar Bulls would want to see Momentum turn back and price above 82.73.
EURUSD: Has rallied strongly since testing the maj poc Support at 1.2777 on 07/09 and on Wednesday printed a 28day high. As long as 1.3065 holds (9mn poc) the chart is in a strong price location. Momentum is positive and up.
