Pre-open comment Thursday 1st August
I marked Responsive Selling (red-at-top) on Thursday and more Aggressive selling (red-at-bottom) later in the session. Analysis on both timeframes is lining up once again so I am very cautious here – long trades eliminated at least until Buyers are marked again. Selling marked below the 1169 poc would indicate continuing weakness aarther than a correction to the rally off the August low.
Resistance = 1222.25 (1/2R off May high) (123.72 SPY)
Support = 1169 (30dy poc)
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls up at 38.6% (from 36.4) that’s the highest in six weeks and the Bears down at 32.3% (from 41) that’s the lowest in six weeks. This increase in optimism is not reflected in yesterday’s Investor Intelligence poll (newsletters) or the Rydex data (see below).
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost higher at 1.50 (from 1.36). The recent low for this ratio at 1.10 was the lowest reading since Sep 2010.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). Unchanged
? EURUSD: Broke minor 1/2R Support and is on a 15 day low today. Has found intraday Support in the area of the Major poc at 1.4212.
+ Dollar Index: Currently printing below the 74.96 poc.
– TLT: printing above the major 1/2R off the 2008 high at 105.22.
imo it is difficult to imply a bias for equities in the ST from these charts but EURUSD printing below 1.4212 would be a negative.
