Pre-open Friday 30th July
Significant Sellers were active again on Wednesday, Responding (red-at-top) to an early probe above Tuesday’s VA. Selling pressure continued through the a.m. taking out the previous day’s low as the stats suggested.
I’d said that Wednesday’s action looked like “Buyers Resting to me, forcing a response from the Sellers” – but Thursday’s action looks more convincing from the Sellers. They were able to auction ES below the major 1094 poc and the Value Area was lower and wider. Taking into account the price and time resistance mentioned pre-open Wednesday (see bottom left), the fact that the CP Market Timing system is still negative and the last imbalance is Selling (red) – we now need very strong evidence before looking at the long side. An early response from the Buyers in today’s session and some value (time) being printed back above the major poc at 1094 would be a start.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio fell slightly on Thursday to 1.45 (down from 1.50).
Supporting Charts (technicals based on daily Price Oscillator)
– USDJPY: New low for 2010 today.
+ EURUSD: New 11wk high today. My target 1.3240
+ UDX: The 81.87 support was broken this week. This puts UDX in a weak price location. Next obvious support is 80.15 the 1/2R off the March08 low.
– IEF: the chart has a pattern of higher highs and higher lows and this is still intact.
imo the influence of these charts for equities is too mixed to be useful at the moment.
