pre-open comment Friday 30th March
On Thursday ES built a Value Area entirely below 1395, the 25dy poc. However I did not mark Significant Sellers and ES Closed near the high of the session, back above 1395. I repeat yesterday’s comment “I have yet to mark Significant Sellers but if Sellers are marked below 1395 that would be the first sign of weakness on this timeframe”.
Dayframe: If ES is going to Close the week strong then the 1395 poc should be expected to hold early in today’s session. 1403 is the very minor 1/2R off Tuesday’s high, Bulls would want to see time spent above that level.
First Level S/R = 1395 (25dy poc)
Support = 1366 (45 dy poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was back up to 5.29 which is the higest ratio in my database. I repeat “historically this has been a warning for the market and usually suggests that upside is limited at least”.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: Chart is currently printing above the four month poc (1.3069).
? Dollar Index: pre-open chart is printing just below the 5month poc at 79.09 and Momentum is down. An important chart to monitor.
? TLT: is printing well below its major poc – difficult chart to make a judgement on at the moment.
imo these charts do not have an obvious bias for equities. This could change soon. Particulary need to watch the Dollar Index chart.
