Pre-open comment Friday 30th September
Wednesday’s red-at-bottom low was tested on Thursday (odds favour an aggressive imbalance extreme being tested the following day about 80% of the time). Yesterday’s 1st Level Support at 1147 was broken, then recovered, but currently pre-open ES prints back below this level which is now 1st Level Resistance.
1st Level Resistance = 1147 (1/2R off Aug low) (SPY = 114.85poc)
1st Level Support ES = 1132 (min poc) If time is spent at this level then the 40dy poc could migrate lower which would most likely be ST bearish.
Major Support ES = 1094 (Maj Poc) (109.17 SPY)
LT Sentiment: The only number worth reporting so far this week is the AAII (public) poll %Bulls which was up from 25.3 last week to 32.5 this week.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 1.15. There have only been two single readings lower than this in the last twelve months. These were on 15th of Sep and the lowest was 1.10 on 22nd Aug.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
? EURUSD: Broke Major Support in early September. 1.3416 is 1/2R Support off June 2010 low and is holding for now. PriceOsc (momentum) has turned up.
? Dollar Index: Chart printed a new seven month high on Monday but PriceOsc has turned down.
? TLT: Last week the Chart tested the Dec 2008 high but PriceOsc has turned down.
imo these charts have a negative bias for equities in the LT but unclear in ST.
