pre-open comment Friday 31st August
On Thursday ES printed a lower Value Area and enough time was spent at 1398.50 (see chart) to shift the 40dy poc back to this level (from 1408.50). This often happens when two close levels both attract time. Both these levels are of importance in the ST. imo Significant Buying marked above 1408.50 would indicate higher and Siginificant Selling below 1398.50 would indicate lower. I haven’t marked eithr for four days now which indicates the market is “waiting”. Most likely for the important meetings later today. Price printing between those two levels will not give us any useful information.
First Level S/R = 1408.50 (poc)
First Level Support = 1398.50 (poc)
Major Support = 1348 (6mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio spiked higher to 5.13 last Tuesday which is the highest level since 3rd May. Ratio on Thursday was unchanged again at 4.52. VIX hit a five year low last Friday at 13.3.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
+ EURUSD: w/e 17th Aug the 6month poc migrated lower to 1.2285. Chart held that level early last week and rallied. Chart printed a two month high today.
+ Dollar Index: Recently the 6month poc migrated down to 82.52. Chart prints below that level. Momentum is down.
? TLT: Key Chart. This week TLT has auctioned back up to the 5month poc at 125.93 but has not managed to print much time above this Resistance. Does TLT find Resistance here which may mark a lower high on the chart or can it print time above 125.93 which would be a positive for this chart and most likely a negative for equities?
imo these charts “should” have a slight positive bias for equities – watching TLT closely.
