posted 9.29 a.m. est
Pre-open comment Friday 3rd June
I suggested yesterday that further weaknes is likely “at least a further test of the 50dyVAL.. .at 1298” – 50dyVAL stays at 1298 and pre-open today has been tested following the release of disappointing jobs data. A previous test of the 50dyVAL brought a Response from the Buyers, we’ll see post-open if that occurs again. Long Trades eliminated for me since Close on Wednesday, see previous highlighted comments.
First Level Resistance = 1314.50 (15dy poc)
Resistance = 1327 (6month poc)
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was up very slightly on Thursday to 3.56 (from 3.54). The extreme high reading of this indicator was 4.57 recorded earlier this month. Also AAII Bulls increased to 30.2% (from 25.6%) and Bears decreased to 33.4% (from 41.4%). This is in a week where the market is sharply lower = not a bullish indication in the ST.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
+ EURUSD: Daily momentum (PriceOsc) is up. Last week’s price bar was a bullish reversal bar. Chart has overcome the 1/2R Resistance off May high at 1.45. If EURUSD prints time above that level the chart will be in a strong position and further strength would be expected.
+ Dollar Index: Daily momentum (PriceOsc) is down. Last week’s price bar was a bearish reversal bar. Chart has broken the 1/2R Support off May low at 74.53. If UDX prints time below that level the chart will be in a weak position and further weakness would be expected.
– TLT: Chart hit a 5day low yesterday and temporarily broke the Support trendline off the April low but higher today.
imo these charts are mixed and it is currently difficult to imply a ST bias for equities.
