S&P 500 emini pre-open Friday 3rd October
posted 09.20 a.m. est
Wednesday’s red-at-bottom low was tested on Thursday but Buyers Reacted (green-at-bottom) and auctioned ES back to close positive for the day. The Value Area was generated entirely below the poc at 1949 but pre-open that level is being probed and could be intraday Support/Resistance today. The LT analysis is negative and until Effective Buying is marked I remain cautious of the long side on any timeframe. Most technical measures are oversold and it will be interesting to see where time is spent from here and if the pocs migrate.
ES Resistance = 1966/67 (min 1/2R and min poc)
ES Support/Resistance = 1949.00 (4mn)
ES Major Support = 1872
Key Charts/Levels: IWM is printing below 111.64 (2yr poc) in a weak price location and DIA prints below 170.38 (18mn poc) also in a weak price location See also Key Charts TLT and USO, below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 17% (unch), Nasdaq 25% (from 22%), R2000 20% (from 15%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: I wrote on Tuesday that my version of the Rydex Assets ratio was “indicating the Rydex traders are not very fearful at the moment.” SPY reached a 38day low yesterday and has corrected more than 4.5% from the September high but Thursday’s ratio (although lower) at 8.29 is not an indication of fear. From a contrarian perspective that’s a concern. The highest ratio in the database is 10.47 On 07/29.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT KEY Chart: On Wednesday closed above the 117.15 (maj poc) Resistance. In a much stronger price location if that level (now Support) holds.
Dollar Index: Printed a new four year high today.
Gold GLD: Recently found resistance at 124.15, the 30mn poc and fell sharply. Pre-open today has printed its lowest level since early January.
Oil USO KEY Chart: Sold-off since mid June and found Support at 34.17 (1/2R off 2009 low). This was broken on Wednesday and price printing time below this level would be very weak location and suggest lower.
EURUSD: Earlier in the month chart broke below 1.3066 (3yr poc) and has today printed a new two year low.
