posted 9.28 a.m. est
Pre-open Friday 3rd September
Aggressive Buyers were marked again on Thursday. Pre-open ES has printed above 1100. The Major POC at 1094 comes back into play here. As does the 1/2R off April high at 1107 which is now First Level Resistance.
Dayframe: First Level Support at 1073. Most recent imbalance was Buying (green).
I use the %Stocks>50dyma indicator is a confirming measure of internal strength when above 50. My NYSE list came in at 61%; my Nasdaq list at 45%.
ST Sentiment: The market has rallied strongly over the last two days but my version of the Rydex Assets Ratio has fallen. It was down to 1.0 on Thursday as the Bear Fund Assets that I follow were up by 14%. This strongly implies that the Rydex mutual fund timers are selling into the strength and as I said yesterday that is encouraging for Bulls (contrarian). Minor concerns for Bulls are the ISEE (equity only) Index which came in at 221, a high number, and the action in the VIX which could easily test the August low.
LT Sentiment: Too many Bears here as well. The Investors Intelligence (newletters) poll reported 29.4%Bulls, the lowest since March 2009 and 37.7%Bears, the highest since April 09. And amgdata reported a net Equity Fund outflow of -$5 billion; that’s the fourth consecutive weekly outflow and brings the 4week flow to -$19.2 billion which is high. Again, LT bullish (contrarian).
Supporting Charts
– USDJPY: New multi-year low last week.
+ EURUSD: Price Osc is up as this chart rallies off the 1.26 support (1/2R off June low).
? UDX: Momentum is down (PriceOsc). If support at 81.80 (1/2R off Aug low) next support is the major level at 80.15
+ TLT: broken below the major 1/2R level at 105.22
imo these charts are now have a positive bias for equities.
