Pre-open comment Friday 4th February
ES tested down into First Level Support on Thursday and quickly came back (see highlighted comments from yesterday). I marked Responsive and Aggressive Buying.
Thursday price action lifted the 8dayVAH to 1304.5. The minor poc has yet to migrate higher but a little more time at 1302/03 would do it.
First Level S/R = 1293 (minor 16dy poc)
Second Level Support = 1281.50 (3month poc)
LT Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported 51.5% Bulls (up from 42) and 26.9% Bears (down from 34.3). This gives a nett of 24.6 which is up from 7.7 last week although it recently reached a peak of 46.9 w/e 12/24.
Lipperusfundsflow reported Equity Fund inflows of $107 million which is not a high number. The 4wk flow is now 13.50 bil which is down from 22.70 last week, the highest since Oct 2008.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down slightly to 3.1. This is historically still very high but down from ratio (on 01/19) at 3.94 which was the highest reading I have in my database.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities)
+ EURUSD: Still strong but testing support today at 1.3578.
+ UDX: Still weak below resistance.
+ TLT: Closest reference level is the 2month poc at 92.56. Chart remains weak below that level. New multi-month low today.
imo these charts have a positive bias for equities.
