pre-open comment Friday 4th May
On Thursday I marked Responsive Selling (red-at-top) and Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom). New long trades are now eliminated for me until I mark Significant Buying (green). Thirty minutes pre-open ES is printing below its 1/2R off the March high (1386) as are SPY, IWM and QQQ. Only DIA is printing in a strong price location.
First Level Resistance = 1395 (2month poc)
Potential Support/Resistance = 1386 1/2R off March high
Major Support = 1366 (4month poc)
Sentiment: AAII (public) poll reported Bulls at 35.4%. This is up from last week’s 27.6% but to put that in perspective, last week’s Bulls% was the lowest number since w/e Sept 23rd last year, i.e. a seven month low in optimism. This poll turned very pessimistic three weeks ago. The current nett (Bulls-Bears) at 6.9 is in the middle range of six months readings.
My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was very slightly lower at 5.26. Wednesday’s reading at 5.43 was extreme, in fact I only have one reading in my database higher than this and that was on 3rd April at 5.64. However, the ISEE (equity-only) index has been printing some low numbers over last few days indicating relatively high put-buying.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities).
(Momentum = daily PriceOsc)
? EURUSD: Chart currently holding above the four month poc Support at 1.3069.
? Dollar Index: printing back above 79.09 (12mnth poc) at a 7dy high.
? TLT: pre-open is printing almost at the maj poc at 117.18.
imo these charts do not currently imply an obvious bias for equities.
