posted 9.29 a.m. ET
Pre-open comment Friday 4th November
Dayframe: ES found low on Thursday at 1st Level Support which is encouraging. I also marked Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) which is usually a positive in the ST. My minor concern on the dayframe is the fact that there has been an abscence of Sellers for three days (and now Buyers active) and yet ES has not even recovered to the level of Monday’s poc. On this timeframe the minor 1/2R off October high at 1249 is important to monitor and I won’t assume higher on this timeframe unless ES can print some time above this level.
1st Level Support = 1231 (minor poc)
2nd Level Support = 1214.50 1/2R off May high (SPY 122.30)
Dayframe: the minor 1/2R off October high at 1249 may be a useful level to monitor for intraday S/R.
ST Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was down very slightly at 2.82. Wednesday’s 2.90 was a 60day high. The AAII (public) poll reported Bulls down slightly to 40.2% and the Bears at 29.6% (up 4.6). The nett at 10.6 is down from last week’s 18 which was a 6month high.
Supporting Charts (+ or – or ? for equities). UNCHANGED
? EURUSD: has now broken back below the 1/2R off May 2008 high which is an important level at 1.3965 but found Support at the 1.3635 poc.
? Dollar Index: back above the major level at 76.27 (1/2R off the May low) but below the minor level which is the 77.05 min poc.
? TLT: above the 4mnth poc at 112.13 but below the minor 1/2R off Oct high.
imo in the ST we cannot get a useful idea of bias for equities from these charts.
